Aurora Forecast
Explore NOAA auroral probability, current geomagnetic activity, and your local outlook.
How to use this tracker
Kp is a global geomagnetic index. Your local probability also depends on latitude, darkness, clouds, and the changing auroral oval.
Aurora viewing depends on space weather, magnetic latitude, local darkness and ordinary weather. The live tool combines NOAA space-weather information with your location so a global geomagnetic number is not mistaken for a guaranteed local sighting.
What the Kp index tells you
Kp summarizes geomagnetic disturbance on a planetary scale. Higher values generally indicate a more disturbed magnetosphere and can be associated with aurora expanding farther from the poles. But Kp alone cannot say whether a person at one address will see aurora at one moment.
Magnetic latitude matters. Two places at similar geographic latitude can have different aurora prospects because Earth’s magnetic poles do not align perfectly with the geographic poles.
Why the auroral oval is more useful than a single number
The auroral oval changes shape and intensity as solar-wind conditions interact with Earth’s magnetosphere. NOAA’s short-term aurora products visualize where emissions are more likely. A location near or under the modeled oval has a different outlook from a location far equatorward even if both users are reading the same Kp value.
Forecast products are probabilistic and time-dependent. They should be refreshed rather than treated as a static map copied earlier in the day.
How to improve your chances of seeing aurora
Choose the darkest site you can safely access, with a wide view toward the poleward horizon. Give your eyes time to adapt and reduce phone-screen brightness. Cameras can record faint color that is difficult to perceive visually, so a photographic detection does not always mean the naked-eye display is equally strong.
Cloud can completely hide aurora. Check local weather in addition to space-weather conditions.
NOAA source and data integrity
Space-weather context comes from the U.S. NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center. NOAA publishes an Aurora 30-Minute Forecast and planetary K-index products. TagBuilder Space presents provider data and calculated local context; it does not manufacture missing measurements.
Forecast versus warning
Aurora forecasts are for skywatching and space-weather awareness. For operational impacts to communications, power systems or navigation, use official NOAA alerts, watches and warnings rather than interpreting an aurora map as an impact forecast.
Frequently asked questions
Does Kp 7 guarantee aurora at my location?
No. Kp is global context; magnetic latitude, oval position, darkness and weather still matter.
Can aurora be seen through clouds?
No. Ordinary cloud cover can block the optical display even during strong geomagnetic activity.
Why does my phone camera see more color than my eyes?
Longer exposure and sensor sensitivity can record faint auroral emissions that look subtler to the eye.
How often should I recheck the forecast?
Short-term aurora products change with incoming space-weather data, so recheck near your planned observing time.
How to read an aurora forecast for tonight
Aurora forecasts combine space-weather measurements and models to estimate where auroral activity is most likely. The oval can expand or contract rapidly as conditions in the solar wind and Earth's magnetosphere change. Your location matters because a global geomagnetic index such as Kp does not by itself tell you exactly what will be visible from one city.
The tracker above therefore treats local position and darkness separately from global geomagnetic activity. Even when the modeled auroral oval is nearby, daylight, bright twilight, clouds, haze and city lights can make the display difficult or impossible to see.
What NOAA's short-term aurora model represents
NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center provides the OVATION-based Aurora 30 Minute Forecast, which estimates auroral location and intensity from current space-weather conditions. It is a short-term model rather than a promise that aurora will be visible at a particular address. The official product and supporting information are available from NOAA SWPC.
Kp index versus the auroral oval
Kp summarizes global geomagnetic disturbance on a planetary scale. It is useful context, but the modeled oval gives a more spatially specific picture of where auroral emissions are favored. A strong event can make aurora visible farther from the poles than usual, while weaker activity may remain confined to higher latitudes.
How to improve your chances of seeing aurora
Choose a dark location with a clear view toward the relevant pole, allow your eyes to adjust and give the sky time to change. Cameras can sometimes detect weak color before it is obvious to the naked eye. Compare local darkness on Sky Tonight and use GOES Weather Satellite for large-scale cloud context where its coverage is relevant.
Frequently asked questions
Does a high Kp guarantee aurora from my city?
No. Latitude, oval position, darkness, cloud and local light pollution still matter.
Can the forecast change within an hour?
Yes. Solar-wind and magnetic-field conditions can change quickly, which is why short-term aurora products are updated frequently.