Aurora Forecast
Explore NOAA auroral probability, current geomagnetic activity, and your local outlook.
How to use this tracker
Kp is a global geomagnetic index. Your local probability also depends on latitude, darkness, clouds, and the changing auroral oval.
The aurora tool above combines NOAA space-weather products with your location and local darkness to provide context for possible northern- or southern-lights viewing. It is a short-term space-weather aid, not a guarantee that aurora will be visible from a specific street or city.
How to read the aurora forecast
The global oval is based on NOAA SWPC auroral model data. The local value represents the model grid near your coordinates, while the Kp gauge gives broader geomagnetic-activity context. Darkness is checked separately because aurora can be physically present but difficult to see in daylight or bright twilight.
What NOAA’s OVATION forecast represents
NOAA’s Aurora 30 Minute Forecast uses the OVATION model and provides a short-term estimate of auroral location and intensity. The underlying conditions can change quickly as the solar wind and interplanetary magnetic field change.
Important visibility limitations
The model does not forecast local clouds, haze or city light pollution. The brightest aurora can sometimes be visible from locations equatorward of the modeled oval, while weaker activity may require a dark northern or southern horizon and a camera to detect clearly.
Related tools
Use Sky Tonight for local darkness and Moon context, and GOES Weather Satellite to inspect large-scale cloud and storm imagery separately.